How much will home prices drop in 2026?

No source can reliably predict an exact drop; forecasts vary widely. What is measurable is current direction. As of May 2026, 13 of the 43 US metros LOKAL tracks already had median prices below a year earlier — watch months of supply, days on market and the sale-to-list ratio to see where cooling is happening.

Where are housing prices going down right now?

As of May 2026, covered metros with a median sale price below last year include San Jose, CA, Orlando, FL, Raleigh, NC, San Antonio, TX, Tampa, FL and others. Each metro page shows the exact year-over-year change.

What are the signs a housing market is cooling?

Rising months of supply (toward or above 5), longer days on market, and a sale-to-list ratio slipping below 100%. Together they signal softening before the median price fully reflects it.

LOKAL / Guides / Will home prices drop — and where are they already falling?

Guide · Trends · Updated May 2026

Will home prices drop — and where are they already falling?

The honest answer: no tool predicts an exact percentage drop, and anyone quoting one is guessing. What you can do is read the signals and see where prices are already moving down. As of May 2026, 13 of the 43 US metros LOKAL tracks had a median sale price below where it was a year ago, ranging from -1.0% to -6.5% year over year.

Metros where prices are down year over year

These covered markets have a lower median sale price than a year ago as of May 2026. Open any one for the full picture.

San Jose, CA-6.5%Orlando, FL-5.6%Raleigh, NC-3.6%San Antonio, TX-3.3%Tampa, FL-3.3%Salt Lake City, UT-2.5%Atlanta, GA-2.4%San Diego, CA-2.4%El Paso, TX-1.9%Long Beach, CA-1.7%Minneapolis, MN-1.6%Nashville, TN-1.3%Sacramento, CA-1.0%

The signals that actually move prices

Months of supply

Under ~3 months favors sellers and props prices up; above ~5 hands leverage to buyers. The covered metros average about 3.9 months.

Days on market

Listings sitting longer is an early sign of softening before the median price itself moves.

Sale-to-list ratio

Falling below 100% means sellers are accepting less than asking — the covered average is about 99.4%.

Mortgage rates

Higher rates cut buying power, cooling demand; lower rates do the opposite, often faster than supply can respond.

How to read your own market

Instead of forecasting, watch the direction each month. If months of supply is climbing, days on market is rising and the sale-to-list ratio is slipping, your market is cooling — regardless of the headlines. LOKAL puts those four signals on one page for every covered metro and refreshes them monthly, so you can see the turn as it happens.

Questions

How much will home prices drop in 2026?: No source can reliably predict an exact drop; forecasts vary widely. What is measurable is current direction. As of May 2026, 13 of the 43 US metros LOKAL tracks already had median prices below a year earlier — watch months of supply, days on market and the sale-to-list ratio to see where cooling is happening.
Where are housing prices going down right now?: As of May 2026, covered metros with a median sale price below last year include San Jose, CA, Orlando, FL, Raleigh, NC, San Antonio, TX, Tampa, FL and others. Each metro page shows the exact year-over-year change.
What are the signs a housing market is cooling?: Rising months of supply (toward or above 5), longer days on market, and a sale-to-list ratio slipping below 100%. Together they signal softening before the median price fully reflects it.

Your market, already filled in.

LOKAL turns the real Redfin numbers for your city into a finished, ready-to-post market update in about a minute.

Open the generator →

Data: Redfin · Redfin Data Center. Verify against your local MLS before quoting figures.